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Inverted Pyramids: The Use and Misuse of Aviation Forecasting.

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    • Abstract:
      The article discusses the need for accurate and detailed forecasting to formulate airport planning policies in the U.S. Aviation policy makers use long term forecasting techniques of assumptions, economic trends, consumer tastes, technological developments and public policy decisions for future recommendations. Even minor errors can affect the accuracy of these forecasts. Air travel demand, aircraft operations, and airport capacity form an inverted pyramid that affect the policy recommendations for community airport requirements. Aviation forecasters are often incorrect as they overestimate, and never convey uncertainties to elected officials. Several forecasts made by Port and Airport authorities of the U.S. are also discussed.