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Job Displacement and First Birth Over the Business Cycle.

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  • Additional Information
    • Source:
      Publisher: Duke University Press Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 0226703 Publication Model: Print Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1533-7790 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 00703370 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Demography Subsets: MEDLINE
    • Publication Information:
      Publication: 2021- : Durham, NC : Duke University Press
      Original Publication: Washington, etc., Population Assn. of America.
    • Subject Terms:
    • Abstract:
      In this article, we investigate the impact of job displacement on women's first-birth rates as well as the variation in this effect over the business cycle. We use mass layoffs to estimate the causal effects of involuntary job loss on fertility in the short and medium term, up to five years after displacement. Our analysis is based on rich administrative data from Germany, with an observation period spanning more than 20 years. We apply inverse probability weighting (IPW) to flexibly control for the observed differences between women who were and were not displaced. To account for the differences in the composition of the women who were displaced in a downturn and the women who were displaced in an upswing, we use a double weighting estimator. Results show that the extent to which job displacement has adverse effects on fertility depends on the business cycle. The first-birth rates were much lower for women who were displaced in an economic downturn than for those who lost a job in an economic upturn. This result cannot be explained by changes in the observed characteristics of the displaced women over the business cycle.
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    • Contributed Indexing:
      Keywords: Business cycle*; Fertility*; Job loss*; Mass layoffs*; Unemployment*
    • Publication Date:
      Date Created: 20170607 Date Completed: 20180409 Latest Revision: 20181113
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